Weather forecasting personnel have it good. Day in and day out they can perform their job terribly, delivering totally inaccurate results, and they are never held accountable for their poor performance. I know it is a really hard job, and I certainly don’t think I could do any better, but I’d like to propose a new approach to valuing weather forecasters that might help to bring those truly exceptional forecasters to the mainstream; and those who are simply coasting by, happy about the lack of accountability, would have to either step up their game or seek alternate employment.
Weather forecasting personnel should be surrounded by the stat-hungry analysts that hound every major athlete and sporting event. Each forecaster will have their personal track-record meticulously maintained. Their yearly contracts will no longer be determined by how much their smile is appreciated by the news watching audience, but rather by their percentage of thunderstorms accurately predicted.
People who have the skills, talent and luck which it takes to be a superstar weather man / woman will rise to the top, be recruited by the big networks, have multi-year contracts, and deliver outstanding and accurate weather forecast. However, those with great smiles but who seem to make predictions using a roulette wheel, well, perhaps their better suited to work in a casino afterall.
Talent scouts would be sent out from all the major news sources and forecasters would be recruited from all the best meteorology universities. The “rookies” who are rising stars would be forgiven a few errors here and there, as long as they show potential. Over time, weather forecasters could begin to develop a brand for their specific skills; Steve’s a tornado guy; Pauline knows sunshine; Jane, she’s got hail’s home phone number.
Since there would be recruiting and stat collecting, would there be a playoff? If so, would it be a team effort with a showdown between news conglomerates or would it be every man/woman for him/herself and may the best weather forecaster win? I think this whole idea would be a great sport and sweep across the nation as America’s new favorite game.
Gee.. I support your approach 100%
Such universities need to be setup all around the world.. the question is who will set it up first =0
@ Kieran
I like the idea of some sort of hardcore competition centered on the prediction of weather, but since weather generally comes on its own time and the main point is to predict it accurately as far in advance as possible, I think I’d rather just catch the highlights and the final scores after it was all said and done.
@ Balu
Thanks for visiting and commenting. Unfortunately I think I have to agree with you. Another good idea that languishes because nobody who has the power to make the change also has the incentive, and those with the incentive don’t have the power. Still, it shouldn’t be hard to start, any company that hires weather forecasters could just begin to tie accurate predictions into the forecasters’ compensation schemes.
I love this idea! My coworkers and I were just last week also discussing the need for more statistics in weather forecasting.
@ Meg
What kind of stats do you think would be good to see? I wonder if there is enough data available out there that a third party could start collecting and informally publishing the accuracy ratings for various stations / forecasters. Maybe pursuit of public esteem would then provide incentive for the program.
No. Absolutely not. No way. Don’t you go making weather-forecasting responsible for its accuracy. You’ll destroy my retirement plans.
You see, I was figuring that when I retire from the graphic design business, I could gently settle into a position as a weatherman. It would be a stress-free position: no accountability for accuracy, minimal training required and lots of free time (they are only on the telly or radio about once an hour or so.)
Only an hour or so on the air, but the new guys are the ones who have to go stand out in the storm to tell the weather. Not that great a way to start retirement!
@ Niall:
I am sure that by the time I retire, they will make chairs out of the ‘blue screen’ material that they use to superimpose people onto different back-drops in movies and television shows. Not worried there.
You don’t think sending the new guy out into the storm is part of the hazing process?
@ Niall:
By the time I retire, society will have progressed to the point where hazing is no longer a practice. I’ll be fine, thank you very much.
Now that’s a swell idea. Holding the weather guys responsible for their so-called predictions.
I suggest a reality-competition for the forecasters: get a dozen or so forecasters, soothsayers and crystal-ball gazers at geographic location where they haven’t been before. Something like, umm, inner Sumatra or middle of the Amazon jungles. Get them to do their forecasting.
The one with the most accurate forecast will NOT be thrown to the monkeys. or dogs.
(No disrepect to the writers of the blog) 🙂
One can extend the competition where the forecasters would survive in the jungles solely on their forecasting abilities. That’ll get them good. 😉
@ CheekyMonkey
A weather forecaster battle-royale surely would start to bring more accurate weather reporting, if the forecasters’ survival depended on it…that or they would all get out of the business.
Don’t forget the chickens! A flurry of angry chickens can be just a fierce as monkeys or dogs, though really a combination attack of all three could be most effective.